The Great Lakes Region of Africa—spanning parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda—has long been synonymous with both extraordinary resilience and devastating conflict. At first glance, the region appears more stable than it was during the peak of violence in the 1990s and early 2000s. Open warfare has subsided, peace agreements have been signed, and regional dialogues are ongoing. Yet beneath this fragile calm lie deep-rooted tensions, unresolved historical grievances, and institutions that remain weak or contested.
This raises a pressing question for peacebuilders, policy-makers, and scholars alike: can peace in the Great Lakes truly last?
Historical Roots of Instability
The instability afflicting the region has deep historical roots. Arbitrary colonial borders and divide-and-rule tactics by European powers, especially Belgium, institutionalised ethnic divisions rather than promoting unity (Mamdani, 2001). The colonial legacy—particularly the manipulation of Hutu and Tutsi identities—set the stage for post-independence authoritarianism, exclusion, and violence.
The 1994 genocide in Rwanda, in which over 800,000 people were killed in just 100 days, marked a horrific turning point (Des Forges, 1999). In its aftermath, millions fled into neighbouring countries, particularly the DRC (then Zaire), including armed elements responsible for the atrocities. This mass displacement triggered a regional security crisis (Prunier, 2009).
The resulting First (1996–1997) and Second Congo Wars (1998–2003)—often referred to as “Africa’s World War”—involved over nine African nations and numerous militias (Autesserre, 2010). The wars, focused in eastern DRC, claimed over five million lives, mostly through starvation and disease (IRC, 2007). Although formal hostilities ended with agreements such as the Lusaka Ceasefire (1999) and the Sun City Accord (2002), eastern Congo has remained volatile.
The Illusion of Calm
While the scale of violence has decreased, particularly in Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda, the region remains on edge. The DRC, especially its eastern provinces of North and South Kivu, continues to suffer from chronic insecurity, with dozens of armed groups active (UN Group of Experts on the DRC, 2023).
Rwanda and Burundi have made strides in post-conflict recovery, yet both are governed by tightly controlled regimes that allow little room for dissent (Freedom House, 2023). Uganda, under President Yoweri Museveni’s decades-long rule, has also maintained relative stability—but at the cost of democratic freedoms and human rights (Human Rights Watch, 2022).
Signs of Progress
Despite these challenges, there have been meaningful efforts toward peacebuilding. The United Nations peacekeeping mission MONUSCO has played a key role in de-escalating conflict in eastern DRC, albeit with mixed results (UN Security Council, 2022). Key peace frameworks—including the 2006 Nairobi Communiqué, the 2013 Addis Ababa Framework Agreement, and ongoing East African Community (EAC) mediation—have opened channels for regional cooperation (ICGLR, 2013; EAC, 2023).
Economic integration has served as another stabilising force. Regional bodies such as the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) and the EAC are working to enhance trade, infrastructure development, and cross-border security coordination (UNECA, 2021). Diplomatic overtures—such as those between Rwanda and the DRC—signal a regional appetite for dialogue, despite persistent tensions (International Crisis Group, 2023).
Importantly, civil society actors—including faith-based organisations, women-led movements, and youth networks—continue to drive grassroots reconciliation and peacebuilding efforts (Oxfam, 2020; Search for Common Ground, 2022).
Renewed Threats and Resurgent Violence
This fragile stability is increasingly under threat. Since 2021, the resurgence of the M23 rebel group in eastern DRC has reignited tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali (UN Group of Experts, 2023). The DRC accuses Rwanda of backing M23—a charge echoed in UN reports—while Rwanda vehemently denies involvement.
Violence in mineral-rich provinces remains driven by competition over coltan, gold, tin, and other strategic resources vital to global industries (Global Witness, 2022). Armed groups such as the ADF, CODECO, and Mai-Mai factions continue to destabilise communities, causing mass displacement and challenging state authority (Kivu Security Tracker, 2023).
Although the DRC’s 2023 elections were peaceful in many areas, they were marred by delays, logistical problems, and political tensions (CENI, 2024). In Burundi, repression persists despite a leadership transition (Amnesty International, 2023). Uganda remains under authoritarian rule, and Rwanda faces growing scrutiny for its internal and external policies (Freedom House, 2023).
Structural Fragility and Institutional Weaknesses
Lasting peace remains elusive in large part due to fragile state institutions. Across the region, judicial systems are weak, security forces are underfunded or politicised, and corruption is endemic (Transparency International, 2023). These systemic issues erode public trust and hinder effective governance.
In eastern DRC, issues such as land disputes, identity-based grievances, and resource exploitation are not merely symptoms of conflict but central drivers (Autesserre, 2021). Youth unemployment, lack of educational opportunities, and disenfranchisement provide a fertile recruitment ground for armed groups (World Bank, 2022).
Moreover, international peacebuilding efforts—though well-funded—have often lacked sustainability and local ownership (de Coning & Peter, 2019). Many initiatives have been top-down and donor-driven, failing to address the root causes of violence: exclusion, inequality, and impunity.
Key Actors and Power Dynamics
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National Governments: States like Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and the DRC have acted as both peacebuilders and destabilising forces. Accusations of proxy warfare and resource exploitation continue to drive mistrust (ICG, 2023).
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Armed Groups: Militias such as the FDLR, M23, CODECO, and ADF operate with motives ranging from ethnic grievances to economic gain (KST, 2023).
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International Community: The UN, African Union, EU, and ICGLR have played major roles in mediation and peacekeeping. MONUC and later MONUSCO have attempted to stabilise eastern DRC since 1999 (UN DPKO, 2021).
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Local Communities and Civil Society: Local leaders, faith networks, women’s organisations, and youth groups have consistently been at the forefront of reconciliation and local peacebuilding (Conciliation Resources, 2022).
Why Peace Remains Fragile
1. Authoritarian Governance
Longstanding regimes have consolidated power at the expense of democracy. While presenting themselves as guarantors of stability, they often stoke grievances through repression and exclusion (HRW, 2022).
2. Ethnic Divisions
Ethnic identity remains central to politics. In DRC, the Banyamulenge, Nande, Hutu, and others frequently clash over land and belonging (International Refugee Rights Initiative, 2019).
3. Resource-Driven Conflict
Natural resource wealth, particularly in eastern DRC, continues to fuel violence rather than development (Global Witness, 2022).
4. Institutional Weakness and Corruption
Poor governance and elite capture have left basic services neglected, encouraging citizens to rely on non-state actors (TI, 2023).
5. Human Rights Violations
From arbitrary arrests to sexual violence and massacres, both state and non-state actors frequently operate with impunity (OHCHR, 2022).
The Role of the International Community
Despite billions invested in peacebuilding and humanitarian aid, the results have been mixed. MONUSCO helped reduce large-scale warfare but has been less successful in protecting civilians or dismantling militias (UNSC, 2022). The Force Intervention Brigade brought temporary success against M23 in 2013, but new groups quickly filled the vacuum (Stearns, 2015).
With global crises elsewhere, donor fatigue is rising. Yet international disengagement risks reversing fragile gains. Lasting peace requires a shift from reactive intervention to long-term, locally owned solutions (de Waal, 2019).
Geopolitical Shifts and Regional Rivalries
Rwanda, Uganda, and DRC continue to view each other with suspicion. Proxy conflicts and accusations of covert interference persist (ICG, 2023). Meanwhile, the region’s mineral wealth is drawing increased interest from global powers.
China’s dominance in DRC mining, Russia’s recent security overtures, and Western efforts to secure green transition minerals are intensifying geopolitical competition (Resource Centre, 2023). While this investment brings opportunity, it may also fuel external meddling and elite corruption.
What Must Change for Peace to Last?
1. Inclusive Governance
Governments must end authoritarianism, restore term limits, and allow vibrant civil societies and opposition parties to flourish (Freedom House, 2023).
2. Regional Dialogue
Sustainable peace requires honest engagement among neighbours. The ICGLR, EAC, and African Union should be revitalised to support trust-building (EAC, 2023).
3. Transitional Justice
Truth commissions, reparations, and domestic prosecutions are vital. Rwanda and Burundi have started these processes; DRC lags behind (ICTJ, 2020).
4. Security Sector Reform
Building legitimate, accountable national forces is essential. DDR programmes should be redesigned with community engagement (UN DDR Handbook, 2021).
5. Equitable Development
Peace dividends must reach ordinary people. Transparent resource governance, rural infrastructure, and youth employment are key (World Bank, 2022).
6. Civil Society Empowerment
Grassroots actors, especially women and youth, must be central to peacebuilding strategies (Conciliation Resources, 2022).
Conclusion: A Precarious Peace, but Not a Hopeless One
The Great Lakes region stands at a historic crossroads. It is haunted by past atrocities—but not doomed to repeat them. The current moment of fragile calm is a rare opportunity to invest in structural change.
Peace is not a singular event but a continuous process—one that demands justice, inclusion, and visionary leadership. The people of the region have already shown they are ready. The question is: will national and international actors finally match their courage?
References
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